Alabama football odds of making 2026 CFP, an ESPN breakdown

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Aug. 3, 2026, 5:00 p.m. ET

What are the Alabama Crimson Tide‘s odds of reaching the College Football Playoff in 2026?

On Monday, ESPN college football analyst Heather Dinich took a look at 31 teams that she believes the selection committee might consider for a spot in the 12-team playoff this season.

Using information from ESPN Analytics and its initial Football Power Index ratings, Dinich ranked Alabama only 17th of the 31 teams listed.

ESPN Analytics currently gives the Crimson Tide a 41.3% chance of reaching the playoff, and its matchup predictor forecasts a 10-2 regular season for Alabama in 2026.

Dinich disagrees with those projections.

“The computers give the Tide the ninth-best chance in the FBS to reach the CFP, which seems generous for a team that doesn’t know its starting quarterback yet and averaged 3.3 yards per carry last year,” Dinich said.

Alabama’s starting quarterback battle hasn’t been decided yet, but five-star freshman Keelon Russell from the class of 2025 appears to be the frontrunner over Austin Mack, who backed up Ty Simpson a year ago.

As for the run game, Alabama replaced virtually all of its offensive line from last season with only former five-star freshman Michael Carroll set to return in 2026. Daniel Hill, AK Dear, Kevin Riley, and five-star freshman EJ Crowell — the state’s Mr. Football winner in 2025 — are among potential impact players in the backfield.

Dinich called the Crimson Tide’s Oct. 10 matchup against the Georgia Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium the toughest game on the schedule for coach Kalen DeBoer in Year 3.

Explaining what she believes the selection will like about Alabama, Dinich said:

“Another regular-season win against the eventual SEC champ. If Alabama doesn’t win the conference again, the next-best thing is the scenario that unfolded last year. The committee forgave a bad loss to Florida State and one of the worst championship game performances by a team in the history of the CFP and awarded a three-loss team a spot in the field mostly because of the Tide’s regular-season road win against Georgia.”

What the committee won’t like is a lack of statement wins, Dinich says.

“Alabama overcame three losses last year. It overcame a bad loss to a 5-7 Florida State team. But it also had four straight wins against ranked opponents at the time (Georgia, Vandy, Mizzou and Tennessee). Bama might not face a ranked opponent until Oct. 10 against Georgia, and there’s no guarantee that the majority of teams in the back half of the schedule will finish in the CFP top 25. Texas A&M and LSU should, but Tennessee, Vandy and Auburn are more uncertain. If Alabama has a similar season to last year — without as many statement wins — the committee probably won’t be as forgiving.”

Alabama opens the 2026 season against East Carolina on Sept. 5 at Bryant-Denny Stadium.